Is Turnabout on the Horizon?

Since the world went into an economic meltdown we have seen large sectors of industry palms-up for tax payer assistance in not only Canada but from every western nation.  Bad news seemed to be coming at us from all directions.  If not from the press it came from your neighbours.  Even true optimists are having a tough time keeping their chins up.  

But last week started with Canada officially calling the economic slump a recession.  Having posted the sharpest two-quarter downturn since 1991, the numbers indicated that our gross national product contracted 5.4 percent, short of the 6.6 percent that was predicted by the so-called experts.  This tidbit of information hit the newsstands on June 2nd. 

Then only four days later, so-called experts in the USA tallied up the American experience, and their numbers indicated that the recession is very close to coming to an end.  According to U.S. payroll statistics the month of May showed that job losses had sharply abated.  Giving rise to an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy since that country officially fell into it’s recession in December of 2007.  Considering that when the Americans `pass-gas` and the rest of the world smell it, Canada’s late official entry onto the economic fray should give rise to hopeful thoughts. 

So if all this really means anything, we should be seeing some indications of our economy turning around.   So I went looking.  Newspapers have always been the best source of information, since it still holds editorial integrity over the internet, I went to the dailies to fulfill my feel-good assignment.

The first thing I spotted is a story that reported house sales reversing course.  According to MLS, the number of resale homes sold through MLS in May rose 18.7 percent over the same month last year.  This proved to be the second month in a row that house sales were up.  April showed an increase of 1.1 percent for the previous month.  Considering that house sales bottomed out at an all-time low of 40.5 percent during the economic slow down, it appears that perhaps on the heels of Canada officially entering a recession, it may be short lived.

So we see the U.S. ball-and-chain losing weight in the form of abated job losses, house sales increase in Canada, our dollars is now worth 91 cents to the U.S. buck, that is up from a recent low of 80 cents.  So what does the Alberta experience say about our economic misery?

The week started out on a low note to hear that Alberta went to the Feds with their hand out for some assistance.  Yes, it was a bit like a fifty year old family man crawling to his parents for some gas money, but we all know that in essence it was only a cash-back move.  But it still hurt.  Then my eyes peered on Alberta’s pride and joy, the Athabasca Tar Sands project.

On June 5th Petro-Canada and Suncor merged to become the newest world energy giant.  It was enough to make a Greenie cringe!  Greenies aside, anyone with half a brain knows that it is our fossil fuels industry that keeps the average Albertan youth hip deep in Xbox 360 games and designer jeans.  If mom and dad are not working, local businesses suffer, and the brats will have to blow the dust of the Atari 2600.

So on the heels of the merger, the very next day a story breaks that states that Alberta oil sands output could grow 50 percent by 2025.  According to the so-called experts, Alberta will be producing 4.2 million barrels of oil per day.  In comparison, we currently produce only a measly 2.7 million barrels.  

With this news it appears that we are heading for another strong period of economic prosperity.  

But before I get a bunch letters from my Green friends I must point out that according to the U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu, the environmental concerns regarding oilsands production is solvable.  Reforestation, GPS challenged ducks and CO2 production is being addressed and if the oil Czar is right, all those issues are being solved.  In the case of recovering the forest reserves that is already underway.   

So is turnabout on the horizon?  I believe so.  But then again I have been accused of being a true optimist.  My only advise would be to keep reading the daily newspapers for those indicators.  You may have to sift through some crap, but it is definitely worth it.